Para sobrevivir algunos deben morir

Las cifras para el modelo industrial de los diarios son de una evidencia extremadamente clara (fúnebre para muchos): desde el 2005 los diarios en EE.UU. han perdido US12, 7 billones en avisaje, y en el mismo periodo sus ingresos por internet han sido de sólo US1,1 billones. Imposible de sostener como organización, incluso con el crecimiento constante mostrado por el avisaje en la web. Jarvis no le suma dramatismo al fin de los diarios y los resultados del último trimestre parecen avalar sus pronósticos: 23 de los 25 mayores diarios en EE.UU. perdieron lectores. Pero la espiral de muerte (y a pesar de las evidencias) no parece ser el único camino. "Los diarios podrán caer, pero no necesariamente quedar fuera. Para que algunos sobrevivan, otos deberán morir", revela un análisis y artículo de la Advertising Age. La explicación, aunque interesada, es consistente. Los diarios, que hoy buscan ingresos en los micropagos, nichos y nuevos negocios, serán diferentes como organizaciones al final de la crisis (muy diferentes probablemente), pero habrá que esperar para que la profecía sea realmente un hecho. O no. Además, el particular análisis de Nicholas Carlson, editor de Business Insider

Cutting away the deadwoodLike millions of American homeowners, many newspaper companies are buried in debt. It was piled on with the anticipation of never-ending profit growth and readily accepted by bankers and optimistic buyers. Tribune Co., the Minneapolis Star Tribune, and the Philadelphia Inquirer and Daily News are already in Chapter 11 bankruptcy, and a number of other major companies will fall soon. They were not capitalized to survive a severe recession; Chapter 11 will provide them with a capital structure to see them through to a better economy.

The big U.S. air carriers have survived Chapter 11, and the big newspapers will too. Industry EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) margins are 14% to 16%, according to a recent J.P. Morgan analysis of public newspaper companies. While that's well below the peak of 25%, newspaper companies are generally still reasonably profitable.
The double whammy of excess debt and a severe recession exposes the broader structural issue of excess industry capacity: There are still too many newspapers in America.

The newspaper industry will inevitably consolidate further. This is not a new phenomenon. When Horace Greeley published the New York Tribune in 1841, there were 12 papers in New York City jockeying for position. There were 1,773 daily newspapers in 1973, and at last count there are 1,422. The demise of afternoon papers accounts for the entire drop, as 886 of them have folded or shifted to the morning.

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